Friday, February 09, 2007

Stuff about things

Polls abound lately. The Leger one looked kinda grim, but I trust the SES polling a bit more, not that the news is much better...

According to the latest SES Research poll completed last evening we are looking at a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals nationally. Some regional shifts have occurred in the past 90 days. The BQ is down 11 points in Quebec (Tories up 8 points). In Ontario the Liberals are down six points (NDP up 3, Green up 3). The Ontario numbers indicate that the Conservative ads are potentially driving voters from the Liberals to the NDP and Greens. Federal Conservative support in Ontario is unchanged in the past 90 days (36%).


So, not quite a 7 point lead, and I wouldn't say this indicates Dion is 'tanking.'

It does appear that the CPC got some mileage out of their negative adds. This just tells me that the Liberals have to come back at the CPC the same way, maybe harder.

SES Research National Survey.


National
Conservative Party – 33% (-1)
Liberal – 33% (+1)
NDP – 17% (+1)
BQ – 10%(-3)
Green Party – 7% (+2)

Quebec (N=234, MoE ±6.5, 19 times out of 20)
BQ – 39% (-11)
Liberal – 27% (+2)
Conservative Party – 20% (+8)
NDP – 8% (-2)
Green Party – 6% (+2)

Ontario (N=262, MoE ±6.1, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal – 38% (-6)
Conservative – 36% (no change)
NDP – 19% (+3)
Green Party – 8% (+3)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com.

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