Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Thanks from Bob




The other day I was pleasantly surprised to receive a package addressed to me from Arlene Perly Rae & Bob Rae. enclosed was a signed copy of Canada in the Balance by Bob Rae, a signed flyer, and a signed letter of thanks:


I am writing to thank you so much for your help and support on our wonderful campaign. I am proud of what we did, proud of the team we built, and proud of the way we handled the whole campaign.

I am sending you a couple of ways to remember those special days and weeks, and hope we can stay in touch as we build a stronger Liberal Party together. Stephane Dion will make a fine Prime Minister, and we all need to do everything we can to make it happen.

All the best, and thanks so much for the great effort!
Did Bob really sign all those letters, flyers and books? My hand hurts just thinking about it. It's still be a nice gesture, even if he really didn't.

I'm glad I volunteered what time I could for the campaign, even more so because Bob is still committed to the future of the party. Thank you Bob, for all of your work.


~*~

I've temporarily switched out the Liblog's button with list for just the button. Why? We have a new Liblogger whose blog has a really long name: insideottawastudentperspective.blogspot.com

The length of this blog title causes my sidebar to conflict with the body of my blog for space, and that battle always results in the sidebar becoming a blog footer.

When I figure out how to fix my template so this doesn't happen the full list goes back up.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Interesting

Friday, February 23, 2007

Time warp

So, this year, Canadians (or at least some Canadians) might catch a Rocky movie in the theatre, see The Police live in concert and vote for Trudeau. Welcome to 1979.

h/t to my friend Bill for his unique awareness.

Friday, February 09, 2007

Stuff about things

Polls abound lately. The Leger one looked kinda grim, but I trust the SES polling a bit more, not that the news is much better...

According to the latest SES Research poll completed last evening we are looking at a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals nationally. Some regional shifts have occurred in the past 90 days. The BQ is down 11 points in Quebec (Tories up 8 points). In Ontario the Liberals are down six points (NDP up 3, Green up 3). The Ontario numbers indicate that the Conservative ads are potentially driving voters from the Liberals to the NDP and Greens. Federal Conservative support in Ontario is unchanged in the past 90 days (36%).


So, not quite a 7 point lead, and I wouldn't say this indicates Dion is 'tanking.'

It does appear that the CPC got some mileage out of their negative adds. This just tells me that the Liberals have to come back at the CPC the same way, maybe harder.

SES Research National Survey.


National
Conservative Party – 33% (-1)
Liberal – 33% (+1)
NDP – 17% (+1)
BQ – 10%(-3)
Green Party – 7% (+2)

Quebec (N=234, MoE ±6.5, 19 times out of 20)
BQ – 39% (-11)
Liberal – 27% (+2)
Conservative Party – 20% (+8)
NDP – 8% (-2)
Green Party – 6% (+2)

Ontario (N=262, MoE ±6.1, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal – 38% (-6)
Conservative – 36% (no change)
NDP – 19% (+3)
Green Party – 8% (+3)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Things about stuff

One of my neighbours is away and has told me I'm welcome to his copy of the Globe & Mail, so today I got to enjoy two interesting columns by John Ibbitson and Lawrence Martin.

John Ibbitson reviews Jamey Heath's Dead Centre, a book about the problems facing progressive movement in Canadian politics. I'm intrigued, but I'm also starting from the position of disagreeing that "bleeding votes from the NDP" results in Conservative victories (see my post below).

Lawrence Martin gives his assessment of why Steve's regime has stalled in the polls. The short answer being: lingering mistrust of the Conservative agenda, Harper's militaristic stance, failure to get out of the gate early (or support for that matter) on the environmental agenda, and the continued negative politicking on the part of the Tories (you have to stop blaming the previous government sometime).

My favorite line is by Martin, regarding Stephen Harper's change of position on various issues: "Has any leader since the era of the Visigoths made this many migrations?"

A couple of good reads (that I can't share because of the subscriber wall).

~*~

Meanwhile, I started this post a while ago, just after reading some great analysis over at A BCer in Toronto about the strategy for the Liberals in the coming stretch, and this occurred to me:

A decision really has to be put to the NDP voters in the next election.

I know this sounds pretty much like another tired cry for "strategic voting," but things really are a little different now.

Before the federal PC party neutered itself and joined the Alliance, the divide on the right hand side of the political spectrum in Canada worked in favour of the Liberal party, and really was a significant factor helping them hold power as long they did.

That really is over now. Short of Harper making some serious errors, and I mean stunning, catastrophic 'what-on-earth-were-they-thinking' kinda stuff, the days of the strong Liberal majority should not be expected to come around again anytime soon.

Now, the divide is on the centre-left of the spectrum. The Liberal party has to make an effort to hang on to the votes of those Canadians who identify themselves as "fiscally conservative, but socially liberal." Hopefully, that shouldn't be too hard. I think we still have to bring the cuts to the SWC to the attention of Canadians... I'm amazed just how many people are not aware of this, along with the cutting of the Court Challenges program.

And this is where the question really is for NDP voters: Do you really want to support keeping Steve Harper in power, even in a minority? The question could also be put more urgently: Do you really want to risk the Conservatives achieving their much desired majority? Jack, do you think you'll even get lip service in the event of a Tory majority?
I believe that the NDP do represent and promote some important issues close to Canadian values; however, more often than not, it's the Liberal party who will implement them, and safeguard them.